Simulated climate warming scenarios lead to earlier emergence and increased weight loss but have no effect on overwintering survival in solitary bees

Insect pollination is critical for both wildflower stability and agricultural yields, with solitary bees being a group of pollinators of fundamental importance. However, documented declines in populations, exacerbated by environmental pressures, including climate change, pose significant threats to the provision of ecosystem services. Exposure to elevated temperatures during periods of dormancy, such as overwintering, is predicted to lead to phenological shifts, changes in condition, and impacts on survival. However, we currently lack studies that inform how such aspects are affected in future climate change scenarios. Using simulated temperature regimes informed by predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we exposed overwintering mason bees (Osmia species) to three field-relevant temperature profiles based on either present-day overwintering temperatures or future temperatures predicted under two major climate warming scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and measured how temperature exposure affected emergence timing, weight loss, and survival. We found that exposure to temperatures under intermediate and worst-case climate warming scenarios led to earlier emergence by approximately three and six weeks, respectively, with increasing divergences in timing of emergence between the sexes of Osmia bicornis, which may lead to intraspecific phenological mismatches. While we found no effect of temperature on overwintering survival rates, we observed increased weight loss prior to emergence but found that in contrast to other studies, it only mildly mediated shifts in emergence timing brought about by temperature exposure, suggesting that weight loss is unlikely to play a major role as a trigger of emergence timing in mason bees. Our study contributes to the growing literature highlighting the impact that temperatures under climate change models will have on the timing of key life events for essential pollinators, which may have consequences at the population and community levels.