Detailed waste flows and circularity rates reveal the limits of the circularity gap concept

In recent discussions on circular economy metrics, the concepts of circularity rate and circularity gap have gained prominence. Countries have reached different levels of circularity, shaped by differences in their economic structures, yet still leaving a substantial gap. This article examines the limitations of the circularity gap concept, drawing on a counterfactual thought experiment that uses Japan, a leader in the 3Rs initiative, The Netherlands, a model of best practices, and Australia, which just developed its circular economy strategy. We discover that the three countries exhibit distinct levels of current and attainable circularity. However, when circularity is alternatively measured against each country's responsibility for primary material extraction, the three countries are strikingly similar. This outcome highlights the need to reevaluate the circularity gap concept, advocating for a narrative grounded in scientific evidence and reflecting what is realistically achievable for economies with diverse roles within global supply chains.