Factors Affecting Tax Revenue Growth in Uganda

Purpose – The study sought to identify the determinants of tax revenue growth in Uganda, utilizing time series quarterly data spanning from 2008 to 2023. Design/methodology/approach – An autoregressive distributive lag - Error Correction Model was employed to establish the long run and short run relationships between the variables. Findings – The study findings demonstrated that agriculture, industry and services sectors negatively affect the growth of tax revenue in the short run and long run. Trade openness and exchange rates positively affect tax revenue growth in the long run. Inflation exhibited an insignificant effect on tax revenue growth in the short run and long run. The study recommends directing policy towards enhancing trade openness, further economic integration and improving trade facilitation. Originality/value – This paper provides a deeper understanding of the determinants of tax revenue growth in Uganda.