Spatiotemporal patterns of diversity and diversity-stability relationships as a function of compounding disturbances and forest management

Abstract Context Consistent with the diversity-stability hypothesis, high wildlife diversity has been associated with increased resilience and stability of ecosystem services and functions. Nevertheless, ecological non-stationarity associated with climate change challenges the concept of stability. Furthermore, ambiguity surrounding appropriate diversity metrics to use has hindered the ability of natural resource managers to leverage the potential benefits of biodiversity conservation. Objectives and methods We aimed to infer how diversity and compositional stability might be affected by multiple climate and disturbance stressors, including management activity. Methods We used a spatially explicit landscape succession model to predict spatiotemporal patterns of beta diversity for terrestrial vertebrates representing three trophic groups (herbivores, insectivores, and predators) over an 80-year time span. Results Trends in diversity were driven by species gains at higher elevations and species losses at lower elevations, however, species reorganization was modified by both mean species turnover (i.e. replacement of species across space) as well as management intensity. Higher species turnover was associated with greater among-site compositional stability and decreased local compositional change attributed to species losses for all trophic groups. Increasing management intensity further increased beta diversity across all elevations whereas decreasing management intensity led to spatial homogenization of herbivores and insectivores at low elevations. High management intensity also weakened naturally occurring diversity-stability relationships at larger spatial scales. Conclusions Increasing management intensity may be beneficial at lower elevations where projections anticipate species losses and homogenization. Additionally, conserving areas of high diversity will likely be important for promoting future compositional stability for trophic groups that support key ecological processes.