The Importance of Wells Productivity and Injectivity Calibration in Short-Term Oil and Gas Reservoir Simulation Reliability

Summary Short-term forecast plays an important role in reservoir management by providing critical insights for operational decision-making, such as field optimization, production planning, and risk mitigation. This study investigates the importance of well productivity and injectivity calibration to improve the accuracy and reliability of short-term forecasts, particularly during the history-forecast transition. It is evaluated how calibrating well productivity and injectivity indices minimize productivity fluctuations and enhance forecast accuracy. The methodology is applied to the UNISIM-IV benchmark case and results show significant reductions in deviation between simulation models and production data. Short-term Net Present Value did not show significant changes comparing both calibrated and not calibrated simulation models, since field production was not changed due to field production constraints, However, the methodology influenced key operational decisions, such as well shut-ins, and showcasing its impact on optimization process. The management of total gas reinjection is also affected by well productivity and injectivity, and erroneous gas injection rates led to erroneous production forecast solutions. This study also highlights the growing importance of accurate forecast in the digital transformation of the oil and gas industry, contributing to more efficient, automated, and sustainable reservoir management.