Investing in PJSC Gazprom in modern conditions

The topic of investing in securities of Russian energy companies in an unfavorable geopolitical environment is relevant, as it carries new information about forecasting dividends of Gazprom PJSC in the context of the loss of a large part of the sales markets and changes in the geography of exports of this company. The purpose of the scientific research is to identify the relationship between the economic indicators of PJSC Gazprom and, on its basis, to build economic and mathematical models with a function for forecasting these indicators. To achieve the goal of the study, the following tasks were solved: the theoretical foundations of the functioning of PJSC Gazprom in modern conditions were considered; a research methodology based on economic and mathematical modeling was selected; economic and mathematical models were built to forecast capital investments and dividends of PJSC Gazprom; future values of capital investments and dividends of PJSC Gazprom for the long term were calculated. The subject of study is the activities of PJSC Gazprom aimed at implementing strategically important projects in connection with the search for new markets for Russian natural gas. The research methodology involves the consistent use of the following scientific methods: analysis of time series of indicators; augmented Dickey-Fuller test; KPSS test; correlation analysis; centered moving average method; economic and mathematical modeling; assessment of economic and mathematical models. As a result of the work, scientific novelty was established: a polynomial economic and mathematical model was constructed, reflecting the long-term trend of growth in capital investments of PJSC Gazprom; an economic and mathematical model of distributed lags was calculated to forecast dividends of PJSC Gazprom depending on the capital investments of this company. Scientific research may be useful to investors purchasing securities for the long term. It helps to predict the situation on the Russian stock market in the context of the economic crisis: an increase in the size of dividends of PJSC Gazprom over the long term will most likely stimulate investment demand for shares of this company. This work contributes to the domestic scientific literature, covering the issues of forecasting the economic performance of Russian energy companies in modern unfavorable economic and political conditions.