Without Land and Water in Wallmapu (Ancestral Mapuche Territory): Exploring Causal Relationships and Perceptions in the Chol-Chol Watershed, La Araucan韆, Chile

From a multi-variate database, causal relationships regarding water scarcity for human consumption in the Chol-Chol River basin were identified. The relationships were examined using the principal component analysis (PCA) statistical technique, and digital coverage was processed with ArcGIS 10.1, allowing for the construction of different thematic maps. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with various local actors, including Mapuche community leaders or lonkos (chiefs in the Mapudungun language) and local planners. The models with the greatest statistical significance are associated with the variables that measure land use changes between 2013 and 2017, particularly native forest and agricultural crops. In areas with greater changes in land use, there is less water availability and greater drinking water distribution by tanker trucks. A group of three models with the best goodness of fit (statistically significant) were identified. The models are related to the replacement of native forests with forest plantation (monoculture) and overexploitation of groundwater for irrigation. This model also links lower native vegetation cover in the southeastern part of the basin to agricultural uses on arable land, which is of higher quality than land in the north, and to lower drinking water consumption. The historical occupation processes of the Araucanía region (Wallmapu), the public policies of land and water (water emergency zone), climate change (decreases in flow and precipitation and increases in temperatures) are some of the driving forces behind land use change and water availability observed. An important innovation of this work has been the realization and discussion of the interviewees’ perceptions, showing different perspectives on a common problem; water scarcity. The interviews reveal diverse responses to the research question: What are the main variables related to the lack of water in Mapuche territory? The perception of Mapuche lonkos is that the lack of water is mainly associated with the rapid expansion of forest plantations. Local planners in the municipalities share a similar opinion.