Research on the Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Influencing Mechanisms of Sustainable Plateau Urban Building Carbon Emissions: A Case Study of Qinghai Province

Buildings account for 39% of global carbon emissions, making the construction sector a pivotal contributor to climate change. In ecologically fragile plateau regions, the tension between urban development and environmental sustainability poses a significant challenge. This study examines the spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing mechanisms of building carbon emissions (BCEs) in plateau cities using an empirical analysis of 13-year panel data (2010–2022) from two municipalities and six prefectures in Qinghai Province, China. By employing the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model, we comprehensively assess drivers across four dimensions: socioeconomic structure, demographic and urban environmental factors, urban expansion patterns, and climatic topographic attributes. Key findings include: (1) The XGBoost model exhibits robust predictive performance (R2 > 0.9, MSE < 0.1, RMSE < 0.3), validating its effectiveness for plateau urban systems. (2) Socioeconomic structure and urban expansion characteristics significantly positively influence building carbon emissions, with GDP, per capita GDP, and built-up areas being particularly influential. (3) The interaction between climate and terrain increases carbon emissions in urban buildings. (4) While socioeconomic structure is a common factor affecting BCEs across different types of plateau urban buildings, other factors, such as urban population density, the housing construction area, and the urban shape index, exhibit variability. These insights inform policy recommendations for cross-regional carbon flow balancing and adaptive low-carbon planning strategies tailored to plateau ecosystems.