The Expectancy-Disconfirmation Model in the analysis of citizen satisfaction in depopulated regions: Implications for sustainable long term rural development policy

Research background: Understanding the cognitive processes used by citizens to form their satisfaction is essential in the design of sustainable rural policies. This research holds significant relevance for other countries facing rural depopulation, governance and demographic challenges. The authors apply the Expectancy-Disconfirmation Model (EDM) to explain citizen satisfaction with rural development policies, considering the unique challenges and expectations of rural communities. Purpose of the article: The authors investigate the EDM capacity to explain satisfaction in the under-researched rural context. Incorporating a territorial perspective into the study of satisfaction may offer a better understanding of the decision-making processes rural citizens use to make evaluations of government policies. In addition, it is interesting to address the lack of consensus on the ability of expectations to act as a predictor of citizen satisfaction and the insufficient attention paid to the distinction between normative and predictive expectations. Methods: The article is based on the results of a survey to rural citizens of the so-called "Hollowed-out Spain”. The authors apply the Structural Equation Modelling methodology to estimate two alternative models that explain the behavior of the variable satisfaction. These two models differ in the variable used to measure expectations. Findings & value added: The results obtained allow us to affirm that the EDM acceptably adapts to the rural context. Perceived disconfirmation exerts the largest effect on satisfaction. The central prediction of the EDM that expectations are a primary driver of satisfaction is not confirmed, although empirical expectations do improve the performance of the model. Some governance implications arise: only if expectations are considered will investments in improving a public service impact positively on citizen satisfaction. Administrations may attempt to influence such expectations, albeit deploying an ethical approach. Enhancing transparency could be useful to reduce dissonances between actual performance and that perceived by citizens.