Analysis on spatial and temporal characteristics of energy supply load side affected by extreme high temperature weather in South China

Abstract Meteorological conditions are one of the key factors influencing human electricity consumption and, thus, electricity demand and grid load. Studying the impact of extreme high-temperature events on power supply load is crucial for ensuring energy supply security. Based on spatial-temporal data of historical meteorological factors, this paper proposes a new method for identifying extreme high-temperature weather characteristics, spatially visualizing these characteristics, and developing a risk methodology for extreme high-temperature events. The correlation between the time series of temperature, heat index, and heat wave index of extreme high-temperature events and the system load data is analyzed using the lagged mutual information analysis method. An empirical study is conducted in the Hainan Island region. The research concludes that the heat wave index proposed in this paper, used to assess the risk of extremely high temperatures, is more effective for risk warning of energy supply load. In contrast, the heat index, associated with the key characteristics of extremely high temperatures, is more advantageous for load forecasting.