In Search for the Best-Fitting Theoretical Model for Explaining Demographic Dynamics

For at least two centuries, population researchers have sought to explain longterm demographic trends. Some examples of these efforts are described in the works of S. Greenhalgh, D. van de Kaa, B. de Bruijn, and H. Leridon. In the Soviet Union, and, later, in Russia, the theory of demographic transition became, for some time, perhaps, the most influential theory, largely due to its impressive presentation to local readers by A. Vishnevsky. Later, this approach and some of the theory’s propositions were challenged by M. Klupt. The ensuing discussion between these scholars highlighted important aspects of demographic theories, their validity, and their usefulness. This article analyzes the debate with the goal of advancing demographic theories and fostering further research. The author employs several epistemological approaches to identify the best ways to assess the relevance of demographic theories.