Temporal patterns and influences of monthly, seasonal and annual temperatures on methane emissions in Greece, Armenia and Russia over two decades

This study explores methane emission trends across Greece, Armenia, and Rostov Oblast region of Russia from 2004 to 2023. Our analyses, based on remote sensing and advanced statistical techniques, showed a 1.3-1.8 °C increase in mean annual temperature over this 20-year period in all these three regions, with the highest and the lowest rates of annual warming in Armenia (0.104 °C) and Rostov Oblast of Russia (0.052 °C), respectively. Mean annual methane concentrations increased distinctly in these regions over this period. Greece showed the trend of highest correlations between methane emissions and temperatures, including mean annual and seasonal temperatures, highlighting substantial role of climate change in emission trends. The emission trends with on-ground observations revealed intricate connections between reduced precipitations, farming practices, waste disposal methods, and naturally occurring emissions in Greece. In contrast, Armenia exhibited weak correlations between temperature and methane emissions, with its farming, waste management, energy and manufacturing sectors playing a significant role in determining emission quantities. The Rostov Oblast of Russia demonstrated weaker association between methane emissions and temperatures than Greece and Armenia, with emission trends being primarily shaped by agricultural activities and natural discharges from wetlands. The forecast models predicted further rise in methane emissions over the 7-year period (2024-2030), with the highest elevation rate estimated for Russia. This study emphasizes the need for tailored mitigation strategies to address methane emissions effectively, considering region-specific factors. Advanced monitoring technologies provide crucial insights into the assessment and management of methane emissions in these diverse geomorphological regions.