Spatial and Temporal Differentiation of Carbon Emission Efficiency and the Impact of Green Technology Innovation in Hubei Province

Green technological innovation is pivotal in advancing the ‘dual carbon’ target and promoting sustainable and low-carbon development. This research examines 17 prefecture-level cities in Hubei Province, employing the Super-SBM model for assessing emissions of carbon efficiency from 2010 to 2020. The kernel density estimation and the Dagum coefficient of Gini are also used to examine the spatio-temporal differentiation and the evolution of these efficiencies. A data panel regression model is utilized to evaluate how green technological innovation impacts carbon emission efficiency in Hubei Province. The research revealed that (1) Hubei Province’s carbon emission efficiency first fluctuated and then increased rapidly, and (2) the overall regional difference in carbon emission efficiency in Hubei Province shows a trend of first decreasing and then gradually increasing. The Wuhan metropolitan area and the Xiang-yang-Shiyan-Suizhou-Shennongjia urban area are quite different; the differentiation within the Yichang-Jingzhou-Jing-Enshi urban agglomeration shows a narrowing trend. (3) The innovation elements of green technology are positively correlated with the effectiveness of carbon emissions; the relationship between economic expansion and population density among the control variables also shows a positive correlation, while the industrial structure and government environmental regulations are negatively correlated. (4) In Hubei Province, there is a temporal lag between green technological innovation and its impact on carbon emission efficiency. Capital investment and technical achievement currently enhance carbon emission efficiency, while human capital positively affects carbon emission efficiency during a second lag period. This article proposes countermeasures and recommendations for R&D capital spending, innovative talent cultivation, and regional differentiation, providing specific references to advance the coordinated growth of the whole Hubei Province and green sustainable development.