Forecasting lithium mine output using satellite data

• We examine data from remote sensing satellites to predict lithium mine output. • Strong evidence of an immediate effect of nighttime lights on lithium output. • Nighttime lights Granger-cause lithium production volumes. • Mine size data is less sensitive to immediate changes in production. This article examines whether data from remote sensing satellites can be used to predict lithium mine output. We use pixel classification of land cover to measure long-term mine expansion and nightly light emissions to measure short-term operational activities. We find a strong correlation between satellite data in one period and individual lithium mine production volumes in the following period. Our rapid and cost-effective method of forecasting lithium mine production can help decision-makers in companies that rely on lithium, and policymakers seeking to ensure adequate lithium supplies in their countries.