Using hypothetical scenarios to explore potential trade-offs and rebound effects from livelihoods projects in the Pacific Islands: a case study from Langalanga, Solomon Islands

People adapt their livelihoods to navigate the changing social and ecological conditions around them, and their adaptations carry implications for sustainability. Livelihoods projects are designed to alter the effort or composition of livelihood activities that individuals and households engage in, yet how different people can or will adapt to the changing conditions inflicted by projects, the factors that encourage or inhibit beneficial adaptations from occurring, and the potential trade-offs or rebound effects that are likely from these different adaptations remains a gap in our understanding. We help address this gap using an exploratory approach in a case study setting by presenting fishers with a series of hypothetical fishing and non-fishing scenarios. The scenarios simulate potential changes resulting from projects aiming to either enhance existing livelihood activities or transform into alternative livelihood activities. Responses highlighted several potential trade-offs and rebound effects that may emerge through various forms of livelihoods projects such as profitability at the expense of sustainability, gendered and age-related patterns in (non)adaptations, the risk of reinforcing pre-existing vulnerabilities, or contributing to a food system transition that undermines public health. Although only a few of the socioeconomic and livelihood indicators were related to different responses, the most influential ones pertained to the participant’s gender or age. The knowledge generated through this approach provides valuable insights into how people may adapt to similar changes in reality. Incorporating these insights into planning, before implementing projects, imposing regulations, or enacting policies, may be able to help expose and avoid potential adverse trade-offs or unintended rebound effects pre-emptively.