Internal variability effect doped by climate change drove the 2023 marine heat extreme in the North Atlantic

The year 2023 shattered numerous heat records both globally and regionally. We here focus on the drivers of the unprecedented warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies which started in the North Atlantic Ocean in early summer and persisted later on. Evidence is provided that 2023 should be interpreted as an extreme event in a warmer world because of superimposed internal variability on top of human forcing, which altogether, made the 2023 event all-time high due to extreme air-sea surface fluxes in the subtropics and eastern basin. The effect of internal variability has been considerably boosted by the long-term ocean stratification increase due to combined anthropogenically-driven ocean warming and multidecadal variability. The 2023 event would have been impossible to occur without anthropogenically-driven climate change but at the current warmer background climate state, it is assessed as a decadal-type event when considering the full North Atlantic ocean and a centennial event in the subtropics and eastern basin. Considering the regional distribution of anomalies is crucial for risk assessment in a warming climate. The 2023 North Atlantic marine heatwave was driven by an extreme phase of internal atmospheric variability but would have been impossible without the doping effect of anthropogenic warming, according to an analysis of observations and climate models

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Publication Details

Journal
Communications Earth & Environment
Published
2025-04-16
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02197-1
Citations
13
Primary Topic
Climate variability and models
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
14.37

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article

Internal variability effect doped by climate change drove the 2023 marine heat extreme in the North Atlantic

Christophe Cassou, Aurélien Liné, Thibault Guinaldo, Jean‐Baptiste Sallée
13 citations
Communications Earth & Environment
Climate variability and models
14.37
article

Internal variability effect doped by climate change drove the 2023 marine heat extreme in the North Atlantic

Christophe Cassou, Aurélien Liné, Thibault Guinaldo, Jean‐Baptiste Sallée
article en
13 citations

Abstract

The year 2023 shattered numerous heat records both globally and regionally. We here focus on the drivers of the unprecedented warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies which started in the North Atlantic Ocean in early summer and persisted later on. Evidence is provided that 2023 should be interpreted as an extreme event in a warmer world because of superimposed internal variability on top of human forcing, which altogether, made the 2023 event all-time high due to extreme air-sea surface fluxes in the subtropics and eastern basin. The effect of internal variability has been considerably boosted by the long-term ocean stratification increase due to combined anthropogenically-driven ocean warming and multidecadal variability. The 2023 event would have been impossible to occur without anthropogenically-driven climate change but at the current warmer background climate state, it is assessed as a decadal-type event when considering the full North Atlantic ocean and a centennial event in the subtropics and eastern basin. Considering the regional distribution of anomalies is crucial for risk assessment in a warming climate. The 2023 North Atlantic marine heatwave was driven by an extreme phase of internal atmospheric variability but would have been impossible without the doping effect of anthropogenic warming, according to an analysis of observations and climate models

Communications Earth & EnvironmentVol. 6(1)
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (FR), Université Fédérale de Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées (FR), Sorbonne Université (FR), Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (FR), École Normale Supérieure (BI), Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (FR), Institut de Mécanique des Fluides de Toulouse (FR), Météo-France (FR), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (FR), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (FR)
European Commission, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Center for Neuroscience and Regenerative Medicine, HORIZON EUROPE Framework Programme
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 1%
Climate variability and models
14.37
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