Numerical modelling of displacements induced by rainfall infiltration in a clayey soil slope: The Miscano (Southern Italy) case study

Predicting cumulative surface slope displacements induced by rainfall infiltration is crucial for accurately assessing the risks to potentially affected infrastructure. In this paper the numerical modelling of the case history of Miscano slope is presented. Plaxis 2D code has been used adopting two constitutive laws: the linear elasto-plastic model (Mohr-Coulomb, MC) and the Hardening Soil with small strain stiffness (HSsmall). The aim is to test the suitability of these constitutive laws in predicting the hydro-mechanical behaviour of clayey soil slope. Based on long-term field measurements, the parameters of MC and HSsmall have been determined by back analysing the first-year field measurements in terms of cumulative surficial horizontal displacements and pore water pressure. Subsequently, the numerical models have been validated against the analogous field measurements collected from the second year. The numerical models predict with a good agreement the field measurements for both years. In terms of cumulative surficial horizontal displacements, the HSsmall underestimates the field measurements by 21.2% at the end of the first year, while that based on MC exhibits a 32.8% overestimation. Moreover, the initialization procedure clearly affects the cumulative surficial horizontal displacements results obtained with both the HSsmall and MC models for the second year. In fact, the best results have been achieved when the second-year net rainfall have been applied starting from the initial phase used to generate the lithostatic stress state.