[Spatio-temporal Evolution and Prediction of Carbon Storage in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration Based on PLUS-InVEST Model].

Land use change is a crucial factor influencing the variation of carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems. Studying the relationship between land use change and carbon storage is important for optimizing regional land use structure, maintaining regional carbon balance, and enhancing regional carbon storage. Against the backdrop of the "Dual Carbon" goals and the dual emphasis on high-quality integrated development in the region, the Yangtze River Delta （YRD） region holds a strategic position as a hub of China's modernization efforts. Therefore, taking the YRD urban agglomeration as an example, based on the PLUS model, an analysis of land use changes from 2000 to 2020 was conducted. Scenarios including natural development, farmland protection, and ecological priority were set to simulate and predict the land use pattern of the YRD urban agglomeration in 2030. Furthermore, the InVEST model was used to calculate the changes in carbon storage in the YRD urban agglomeration under different scenarios for the periods of 2000 to 2020 and 2030. Finally, spatial autocorrelation analysis was utilized to explore the spatio-temporal characteristics of carbon storage in the terrestrial ecosystems of the YRD urban agglomeration under different scenarios, and corresponding suggestions were proposed. The results indicated that： ① From 2000 to 2020, the carbon storage in the YRD urban agglomeration decreased by 51.08×10⁶ t. The reduction in farmland area （7.82%） and increase in construction land area （7.56%） were the main reasons for carbon loss. ② By 2030, the carbon storage in the terrestrial ecosystem of the YRD urban agglomeration under the scenarios of natural development, farmland protection, and ecological priority were estimated to be 2.65×10⁹, 2.67×10⁹, and 2.70×10⁹ t, respectively. Compared with the carbon storage values in 2020, the values under all three scenarios showed a decrease to varying degrees. ③ The results of local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed similar spatial distribution of carbon storage under all three scenarios. High-value areas were clustered in the southern and western regions of the YRD urban agglomeration, whereas low-value areas were concentrated in the eastern and central regions. These findings contribute substantially to achieving the "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" goals in the YRD urban agglomeration.