A global threshold model of enabling conditions for social tipping in pro-environmental behaviours – the role of sea level rise anticipation and climate change concern

Abstract. Effective climate change mitigation necessitates swift societal transformations. Positive social tipping processes, where small triggers initiate qualitative systemic shifts, are potential key mechanisms towards instigating the desired emissions mitigation. A necessary foundation for societal tipping processes is the creation of enabling conditions. Here, we assess future sea level rise estimates and social survey data within the framework of a network-based threshold model to exemplify the enabling conditions for tipping processes. We find that in many countries, the level of climate change concern is already sufficient, suggesting the enabling conditions and opportunities for social activation already exist. Further, drawing upon the interrelation between climate change concern and anticipation of future sea level rise, we report three qualitative classes of tipping potential that are regionally clustered, with the greatest potential for tipping in western Pacific Rim and East Asian countries. These findings propose a transformative pathway where climate change concern increases the social tipping potential, while extended anticipation time horizons can trigger the system towards an alternative trajectory of larger social activation for climate change mitigation.