Preliminary design of a traffic separation scheme at the hub port of IKN: hydro-oceanographic analysis for navigational safety in the Makassar Strait

The increasing maritime traffic density in the Makassar Strait, particularly due to the development of the Hub Port at Indonesia’s new capital (IKN), necessitates a structured Traffic Separation Scheme (TSS) to ensure navigational safety. This study aims to design a preliminary TSS by integrating hydro-oceanographic data, vessel traffic analysis, and maritime risk assessment. A qualitative research methodology employing case studies and literature reviews was applied. Vessel movement patterns were analyzed using data from the Indonesian Maritime Security Agency (BAKAMLA RI) and vessel tracking applications. Safety assessments were conducted based on historical collision records and probabilistic modeling of grounding, stranding, and vessel collisions. Hydro-oceanographic data, including wind speed, wave height, and tidal currents, were sourced from secondary data and validated using numerical modeling. The findings suggest that the Makassar Strait TSS should consist of two separate lanes, each 3 km wide, with dedicated northbound and southbound routes. The design considers navigational obstacles such as subsea pipelines, offshore platforms, and coral reefs, ensuring safe passage. Hydro-oceanographic analysis confirms that prevailing conditions, including wind speeds below 15 knots and maximum wave heights of 1.25 meters, comply with recommended maritime safety standards. Additionally, statistical evaluations of vessel movement and collision probability indicate that a 3 km-wide channel effectively mitigates accident risks. This study provides an initial framework for optimizing TSS implementation in one of Indonesia’s most strategic waterways. The results highlight the importance of structured traffic management in reducing navigational hazards and improving maritime efficiency. The proposed TSS design aligns with international safety regulations and aims to support the long-term development of the IKN Hub Port as a critical maritime node. However, this study relies on secondary data and does not incorporate real-time traffic monitoring or high-resolution hydrographic surveys. Future research should integrate real-time Automatic Identification System (AIS) data and in-situ hydrographic measurements to refine the TSS structure. Additionally, further hydrodynamic simulations should be conducted to enhance route optimization under extreme weather conditions.