The Impact of Migrant Workers’ Return Behaviors on Land Transfer-in: Evidence from the China Labor Dynamic Survey

In the context of the implementation of the rural revitalization strategy in China, returning rural migrant workers are bound to have a certain impact on the rural economy, and land is a very important factor in the agricultural economy. Using data from the 2018 China Labor Dynamic Survey (CLDS), this study examines how migrant workers’ return behaviors influence farmland transfer-in. To address potential endogeneity, the analysis employs the Probit model, instrumental variable methods, and propensity score matching. The findings reveal that returning migrant workers significantly promote farmland transfer-in. Households with returning migrant workers exhibit stronger demands for land transfer-in and tend to operate farmland on a larger scale. Furthermore, returning migrant workers drive farmland expansion through mechanization labor substitution, enhanced access to agricultural loans, and reduced non-farm participation. Additionally, returning migrant workers who are highly educated and younger play a particularly influential role, underscoring the heterogeneous impacts across different migrant groups. This study provides empirical evidence for rural revitalization policies in China by systematically analyzing the effect of returning migrant workers in promoting land transfer-in and the path of influence on farmland scale.