Comprehensive Study of Climate Change Impacts on Temperature and Precipitation in East and West of Mazandaran Province in North of Iran

The consequences of climate change in recent decades include global warming and variations in precipitation patterns. In this research, the impacts of climate change on temperature and precipitation in the east and west of Mazandaran Province, northern Iran, are examined via five GCMs (general circulation models) and two scenarios (SSP2-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) for the baseline period (2005–2023), near future period (2025–2050), and far future period (2051–2080) according to the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Sixth Assessment Report. In the study area, four synoptic stations in the west of Mazandaran and seven stations in the east of Mazandaran are considered. The analyzed data are daily precipitation and minimum, maximum, and average temperatures. Downscaling was performed by using LARS-WG 8.0 (Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator) software. The results revealed that the SSP5-8.5 (shared socioeconomic pathways) scenario showed better accuracy than the SSP2-2.6 scenario. In the west of Mazandaran, in the near future, the maximum temperature is projected to increase by 1.1 °C, while precipitation is projected to decrease by 26.3 mm, compared to the baseline period. In the east of Mazandaran, in the near future, the maximum temperature is projected to increase by 0.82 °C, while precipitation is expected to decrease by 7.1 mm, compared to the baseline period. In the west of Mazandaran, in the far future, the maximum temperature is projected to increase by 1.34 °C and precipitation is going to decrease by 55.7 mm, relative to the baseline period. In the east of Mazandaran, in the far future, the maximum temperature is projected to increase by 1.1 °C, while precipitation decreases by 31.3 mm, relative to the baseline period. The projected warming trends and precipitation reduction in both the east and west regions of Mazandaran Province are expected to have adverse environmental and socioeconomic implications.