Current Nicotine use and the Development of Depressive Symptoms Across Adolescence and Adulthood: A Multi-Dataset Study Exploring Moderation Effects of Body Mass Index and Sex

Abstract Nicotine use is a risk factor for developing depressive symptoms among adults, though findings are mixed in younger samples. To shed new light on this, we examined temporal associations between current nicotine use and the development of depressive symptoms using structural equation models and existing 3-wave datasets from the Netherlands of adolescents ( n = 2.003, M age = 13.81, 48% female), young adults ( n = 8.545, M age = 21.57, 71% female), and adults ( n = 713, M age = 45.29, 73% female). Results indicate no strong support for temporal associations between current nicotine use and the development of depressive symptoms among adolescents (β W1→W2 = .02, p W1→W2 = .555; β W1→W3 = .01, p W1→W3 = .792; β W2→W3 = .02, p W2→W3 = .685), young adults (β W1→W2 = .003, p W1→W2 = .871; β W1→W3 = .04, p W1→W3 = .009) nor adults (β W1→W2 = .02, p W1→W2 = .574; β W1→W3 = .05, p W1→W3 = .306). Additionally, we revealed that (z)BMI did not moderate this longitudinal link across all developmental stages (β between -.04 and 0.03, p between .272 and .637), while a non-robust and inconsistent small sex-specific moderation effect of BMI was observed in the young adults sample (β W1 →W 2 = .04, p W1 →W2 = .047). Importantly, our additional exploratory analyses among adults supported a sex-specific interaction (β = -.10, p = .039), suggesting that nicotine use tends to increase the risk of depressive symptoms among adult females, but not males, indicating a possible adult female susceptibility that requires further exploration. These findings can guide follow-up research and further age-specific tailoring of smoking prevention efforts and public health policies.