Chain Fault Path Analysis and Risk Assessment Based on Accident Chain Modeling

The occurrence of initial faults in distribution networks may often induce a series of chain reactions, which in turn cause significant losses. In order to completely assess the impacts caused by chained faults, a chained fault evolution path prediction and risk assessment method based on the accident company model is proposed. Based on the source fault set, the lower level open branch indicators and the depth-first algorithm, the evolution path of the accident chain of chain faults is predicted. Based on the accident chain model and risk metrics calculation, the consequences of fault risk are assessed and the weak links in the fault scenario are identified. Finally, taking the IEEE69 node system as an example, the accident chain model is constructed, the risk of chained faults is calculated, and the branch importance is evaluated to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.