Analysis of the Economic Feasibility of Power Substitution Potential at the Industrial Park Level Based on Mixed-Integer Linear Programming and Its Application in a Pharmaceutical Park

To address the lack of rapid and economical methods for assessing the power substitution potential of enterprises and industrial parks under the dual-carbon goals, this study employs a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) approach to construct a year-round, 8760-hour simulation and optimization model of the energy system at the industrial park level. A quantitative analysis framework for power substitution potential is proposed. Through a practical analysis of power substitution in a pharmaceutical park in Guizhou, it was found that compared with the traditional gas boiler solution, the optimized power substitution scheme using high-temperature heat pumps could save the target park approximately 95,000 RMB in annual energy costs, reduce unit energy cost by about 3%, and decrease unit energy-related carbon emissions by about 4%. This study provides a scientific method and simulation framework for quantitatively analyzing power substitution potential in industrial parks.