Time Series Analysis For Leprosy in Tocantins

Objective: To understand the dynamics of leprosy in the state of Tocantins and describe its pattern of occurrence. Theoretical Framework: Tocantins is considered an endemic state for leprosy. Despite actions aimed at eliminating this disease, the number of cases has been increasing over the years. Method: A time series was created with data from SINAN for the period 2013 to 2023. R Studio software version 1.1.463 was used for this. The forecast of leprosy cases for the period 2024 to 2026 was made using the autoregressive model integrated by moving average. Results and Discussion: The results show that leprosy in Tocantins is endemic, with no epidemic outbreaks. In addition, a seasonal reduction was identified specifically in the months of July and December in all the years studied (2013 to 2023). Finally, using the mathematical model developed in the study, it was possible to forecast an increase in the number of leprosy cases for the period from 2024 to 2026. Research Implications: The mathematical model developed in this study was effective in predicting the rise in the number of leprosy cases in the state of Tocantins. The results are important because they will be able to support the Tocantins State Leprosy Control Program in creating efficient strategies for leprosy control. Originality/Value: Mathematical models are an important tool for subsidizing actions aimed at eradicating leprosy in the state of Tocantins.