Water Consumption Forecasting Model For The Very Short Term: Case Study in Campo Verde/MT

Objective: The objective of this study is to develop a very short-term water consumption forecasting model, which will serve as a tool to support operational decisions in the water supply system of the city of Campo Verde/MT. Theoretical Framework: The various challenges faced in the operation of the water supply system are evident, including: high rates of water losses, exorbitant costs and interruptions in the supply of energy, inadequate storage capacity, illegal connections and expansion of the network not contemplated in projects, in addition to changes in the quality of the distributed water. In this context, consumption forecasting can be a valuable tool for mitigating the impacts of these problems on the system, contributing to the reduction of losses, the preservation of water, the chemicals used in its treatment and the energy required to pressurize the system. Method: The methodology adopted for this research includes literature review, data collection, data processing, definition of water consumption type profiles, construction of the forecast model, assessment of knowledge of the forecast model, and forecast model interface. Results and Discussion: The results obtained indicated that the model requires improvements for its application in real scenarios, in order to function as an effective tool to support operational decision-making. The groups resulting from the time series clustering process allowed the identification and definition of the different water consumption profiles. Furthermore, the analysis of these profiles revealed the relationship of daily seasonality in consumption, since the consumption pattern of the current day reflected the behavior of the previous day. Research Implications: The investigation of predictive models on water consumption presents a significant opportunity for the sector, functioning as a support instrument in the operational decisions of the water supply system, which, in turn, influences environmental impacts. The growth in per capita water consumption has imposed a considerable burden and demanded urgent responses from water supply systems. Originality/Value: This study enriches the literature by addressing the various challenges that permeate the operation of the water supply system. Thus, the urgency of exploring methodologies that enable the improvement of operations and the increase in the efficiency and management of these systems motivates the carrying out of this research.