The likelihood of holding outdoor skating marathons: the past, present and future of a climate-change indicator, and a way to adapt

Abstract “ Global warming is taking a heavier toll than previously thought on a grueling 200-km speedskating marathon over frozen rivers and canals linking 11 towns in northern Holland. ” This and many other headlines appeared in the national and international media in response to an article that we (Visser and Petersen) published in 2009 in Climatic Change . Here, we provide an update and extension of the 2009 publication. We calculate the likelihood of holding an eleven-cities skating marathon – or “Elfstedentocht” in Dutch – for the period 1901–2023 and provide an outlook for the years 2050 and 2100, based on climate scenarios recently published by Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI). It shows – not unexpectedly – that prospects for the Elfstedentocht get unfavorable under high emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5). On the other hand, if countries succeed in keeping global temperatures within the Paris Agreement range of [1.5–2.0] °C, marathons are still within reach (SSP1-2.6). Furthermore, we extend the climate change adaptation literature through a discussion of actions that could be taken to continue outdoor skating marathons during an era of climatic change. In the village of Winterswijk an experimental ice rink has been constructed where marathon competitions can be organized with a minimum of two consecutive ice days (combined with clear-sky conditions). If the number of participants would be limited, even a single frost day suffices. This study sheds new light on the depth and breadth of climate impacts on sport people, facilities and culture, but also on the potential for adaptation.