The critical nexus of water resources and food security underscoring climate justice in Egypt: within-variable comparative analysis

Purpose Egypt could face total water depletion by 2050 due to the current water scarcity of about seven billion cubic meters. Climatic shocks worsen this crisis, alongside Ethiopia’s unilateral construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). This has caused a stalemate, raising concerns as Egypt relies on the Nile for 97% of its water supply. This study examines the role of climate shocks and their impact on food shortages in Egypt, focusing on prolonged water scarcity and the involvement of international stakeholders in mitigation. It assesses how climatic shocks affect wheat and rice production, considering other shocks like the 2022 Russia–Ukraine war. Design/methodology/approach The study evaluating the social and human impact of the project in a context of analyzing within crop-variable food availability. The within-variable comparative analysis from 2016 to 2023, incorporates hydrological data, hydropower analysis, agricultural outputs and food security indices. It examines the impact of reduced water availability on wheat and rice production and overall food insecurity. Findings Findings indicate systemic water shortages since 2016 due to climatic pressures, reduced crop yields and increased food insecurity, exacerbated by the GERD’s operation. The study suggests policy measures to enhance agricultural resilience to climate change and calls for sustained diplomatic efforts to mitigate the GERD’s impact on water resources. Originality/value Unlike existing literature that takes a stationary approach or cross-country comparisons, this study offers within-variable trend analysis to capture the evolving relationship between water availability, crop production and food security in Egypt from 2016 to 2023.