Assessing the Effects of the ASEAN Free Trade Area and ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreements on Manufacturing Industries in ASEAN

This study examines the effects of the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (AFTA) and the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) on manufacturing trade within ASEAN.It aims to evaluate how these trade agreements influence the growth of manufacturing trade flows between ASEAN members and China.Using a gravity model and panel data from 1999 to 2015, the analysis includes ten ASEAN countries, China, and key trading partners.Key factors such as GDP, population, and geographic proximity are considered to determine their impact on bilateral trade.The findings show that AFTA and ACFTA significantly boost trade flows.GDP and population positively influence trade volumes, while geographic barriers, such as landlocked status and greater distance, hinder trade.The study also identifies a complementary relationship within the regional supply chain, where ASEAN exports lower-value goods to China and imports higher-value products in return.These results highlight the role of trade agreements in promoting economic integration and enhancing ASEAN's standing in the global manufacturing network.The study provides valuable insights for policymakers seeking to maximize the benefits of trade agreements to foster regional economic growth and cooperation, laying the foundation for stronger trade ties and sustainable development.