Extended Commentary—Blitz on the West: Ukraine as Ground Zero of China's New Great Game

ABSTRACT The task of this commentary is to explore the place of the Ukraine War in China's New Great Game. It is a standard realist trope, crudely adopted by MAGA pundits, that the war is a regional conflict that was born in NATO expansion and warrants little U.S. support. Taking this strategically reductive position is rather like trying to treat the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 as a basically Caribbean event. The fact is that Ukraine is a victim of unprecedented (since the Stalin era) Russian aggression, not Western machinations, and since 2022 Russia's massive invasion has been entirely dependent on China's backing. Apart from Ukraine itself, Russia has been the war's biggest loser, while China has been its colossal winner. In a negotiated “peace” mediated by the Trump administration, Russia will likely secure a chunk of Ukraine about the size of Virginia, whereas China will almost surely end up as the de facto hegemon of Eurasia as a whole, with Russia serving as its regional proxy.