Butterfly Effect Shaping the Tourism Ecosystem: A Case Study of Border Security and Tourism from Strandzha Nature Park

This article examines a case from the largest protected area in Bulgaria – Strandzha Nature Park, located at both a national border and an external border of the European Union. Here, the acute, pressing needs of national security intersect with long-term nature- and culture-based tourism efforts. The tourism ecosystem, as a business ecosystem, is characterized by complexity. In such complex adaptive systems, the butterfly effect can be observed, where small contributions or changes in the initial conditions lead to dramatic consequences and often unpredictable results, affecting the overall health of the system. The research presents the impacts of a new business traveler segment – policemen and soldiers stationed in the region – on tourism in the municipality of Malko Tarnovo, which lies entirely within the park's boundaries. To assess these impacts, statistics, secondary analysis of expert interviews, and online communications were reviewed. The results reveal both positive and negative direct alterations in the accommodation supply which, in turn, could further influence many aspects of both consumer behavior and tourism service providers’ decisions. The study suggests that the state, as the factual customer of business tourism services, should recognize its role within the ecosystem and contributes to the strategic development of tourism in the region, rather than unintentionally disrupting it. By examining a specific case in tourism practice, the study offers empirical validation of the ecosystemic governance framework in tourism. Furthermore, it contributes to tourism governing in other similar regions across Europe.