Identification, Analysis, and Forecasting of Failure-Free Loading Risk Parameters for Finished Products at a Transport and Logistics Terminal

The study is focused on summarizing and analyzing the results obtained in the assessment of failure-free loading risks of finished products at the loading points of a transport and logistics terminal. The nomenclature of finished products and their corresponding storage zones was identified, considering the technological properties and specific characteristics of these cargoes to enhance the efficiency of terminal operations. The research established probability density distribution laws for the reliable operation of buffer storage tanks based on statistical analysis. A theoretical justification for failure-free loading risks and their components was developed using queuing theory. The main risks identified include the failure-free operation risk of buffer storage tanks, warehouse overflow due to the lack of storage space, vehicle downtime due to product unavailability, loading post system downtime due to the absence of a vehicle, and refusal to load due to full capacity at all terminal loading points. To quantify failure-free loading risks, factors such as product type, fractionality, loading method, and storage zones were considered. A ranking of risk levels was conducted, classifying loading risks into low, medium, and high categories. Based on these findings, a risk matrix was developed for the entire range of finished products, segmented by storage zones and loading points within the transport and logistics terminal. The study provides a systematic approach to assessing and classifying failure-free loading risks, allowing for the identification of critical areas that require optimization. The developed risk matrix enables effective decision-making for optimizing loading processes, reducing downtime, and enhancing the stability of logistics operations.