Ecological Security Assessment Considering Carbon Sources and Sinks and Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Evolution: A Case Study of the Chengdu‐Chongqing Economic Circle

ABSTRACT Achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality has been proposed as a strategic goal to drive the systematic transformation of economic and social systems and meet the requirements of sustainable human development. However, previous studies have seldom considered regional ecological security from the perspective of carbon sources and sinks. Adopting the Chengdu‐Chongqing Economic Circle (CCEC) as a case study, this paper evaluates ecological security with factors aligned to the dual‐carbon goals. A combined weight and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) are applied to assess ecological security. Temporal and spatial dynamics of carbon sources, carbon sinks, and the Comprehensive Ecological Security Index (CESI) are analyzed, alongside spatial autocorrelation to identify clustering patterns. The results indicate that: (1) Core carbon source areas are concentrated in the Chengdu Plain and Chongqing's urban centers, while high carbon sequestration regions are located around the CCEC's periphery. (2) The overall ecological security level has steadily declined, accompanied by significant spatial variation in the CESI. (3) Over the past decade, CESI exhibited pronounced spatial clustering, with an initial increase in clustering intensity followed by a decrease. The study highlights the importance of spatial planning and enterprise coordination to enhance regional ecological security. By integrating carbon sources and sinks into ecological security assessments, this research offers valuable insights for regional carbon reduction strategies and sustainable development planning.