Predicting College Enrollment for Low-Socioeconomic-Status Students Using Machine Learning Approaches

College enrollment has long been recognized as a critical pathway to better employment prospects and improved economic outcomes. However, the overall enrollment rates have declined in recent years, and students with a lower socioeconomic status (SES) or those from disadvantaged backgrounds remain significantly underrepresented in higher education. To investigate the factors influencing college enrollment among low-SES high school students, this study analyzed data from the High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS:09) using five widely used machine learning algorithms. The sample included 5223 ninth-grade students from lower socioeconomic backgrounds (51% female; Mage = 14.59) whose biological parents or stepparents completed a parental questionnaire. The results showed that, among all five classifiers, the random forest algorithm achieved the highest classification accuracy at 67.73%. Additionally, the top three predictors of enrollment in 2-year or 4-year colleges were students’ overall high school GPA, parental educational expectations, and the number of close friends planning to attend a 4-year college. Conversely, the most important predictors of non-enrollment were high school GPA, parental educational expectations, and the number of close friends who had dropped out of high school. These findings advance our understanding of the factors shaping college enrollment for low-SES students and highlight two important factors for intervention: improving students’ academic performance and fostering future-oriented goals among their peers and parents.