Cyclone Warning System in India: A Journey of Success over 25 Years

Abstract An extremely severe cyclonic storm (ESCS) Biparjoy crossed the Gujarat coast near Jakhau around 1730 UTC 15 June 2023 with a maximum sustained wind (MSW) speed of 32–35 m s −1 gusting to 39 m s −1 . From 1891 to 2023, 22 tropical cyclones (TCs) have crossed the Gujarat coast (India). Out of these, the ESCS in 1998 (TC Kandla) was similar to the recent TC Biparjoy. During June 1998, TC Kandla crossed the Gujarat coast near Porbandar around 0130 UTC 9 June with an MSW of 44–47 gusting to 50 m s −1 and again near Kandla around 0900 UTC of the same day with an MSW of 40–43 m s −1 gusting to 47 m s −1 . Official government records indicate that TC Kandla caused deaths of about 1173 people and TC Biparjoy caused no death in Gujarat. Despite frequently changing track and intensity and rapid intensification, the Indian Meteorological Department predicted all the features of TC Biparjoy including genesis, track, intensity, landfall, associated heavy rain, winds and storm surge, and damage accurately with sufficient lead time. Active response actions from stakeholders resulted in zero loss of life in Gujarat State. A comparative analysis of the early warning system (EWS) of TC Biparjoy in 2023 and TC Kandla in 1998 is made to evaluate the progress made over the years and identify gap areas for further improvement. The study shows that the success in EWS of TCs could be achieved through improvements in all components of EWS including observations, data communication, analysis, modeling, forecasting, and warning services. Significance Statement This study aims to evaluate the progress in the early warning system (EWS) of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the last 25 years in India by comparing the EWS for two similar TCs that hit Gujarat in 1998 and 2023. The results show that there has been a paradigm shift in all components of EWS including observations, data communication, analysis, modeling, forecasting, warning products generation, and dissemination which has enabled disaster managers to minimize the death toll associated with most TCs in the region over the past decade to double digits. The zero death during TC Biparjoy in Gujarat State in 2023 is a demonstration of role of weather and climate science, especially EWS for early action by disaster managers and hence the benefit of society.