Decarbonization pathways through multi-energy system planning

Transitioning to sustainable energy systems requires a fundamental shift from fossil-fuel-based power to integrated, multi-energy solutions. This study explores how multi-energy systems (MES) can act as enablers of decarbonization by coordinating various energy carriers such as electricity, heat, hydrogen, and gas. Utilizing the Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) framework, the research examines the dynamic interdependencies and emergent behaviors to identify effective decarbonization pathways in energy systems. To operationalize these insights, the study proposes the Adaptive Decarbonization Pathway Framework (ADPF), which offers a structured approach for evaluating pathways based on system interactions, adaptability, and stakeholder collaboration. Key findings include the identification of three primary decarbonization pathways: renewable energy integration, energy storage, and sector coupling, which are validated through case studies in Denmark, Germany, and China. The uniqueness of this work lies in the integration of CAS principles with a structured, goal-oriented framework (ADPF) that addresses the limitations of traditional CAS approaches, such as the lack of strategic prioritization and actionable decision-making tools. The specific research gap addressed is the absence of a systematic framework that combines adaptability, stakeholder collaboration, and iterative evaluation to align multi-energy systems with decarbonization goals. The Theoretical implications include advancing the understanding of how emergent behaviors in complex systems can be harnessed for decarbonization, while practical implications provide policymakers and energy planners with a robust tool for prioritizing and implementing decarbonization strategies. This work bridges the gap between theoretical insights and practical applications, offering a roadmap for achieving carbon neutrality through coordinated multi-energy planning.