A Study on the Demand Forecasting and Development Plan of Incheon Port Marine Express Logistics Center using Time Series Analysis

As the maritime express cargo entering Incheon Port increased significantly in 2023, customs clearance procedures, which usually took 2-3 days, were now taking about a week, and customs clearance delays were worsening. This was because the volume of customs clearance cargo from China, including Chinese companies such as AliExpress, Temu, and Shein, exceeded the amount that Incheon Customs could handle due to the rapid increase. Incheon Port showed a sharp increase from 11.72 million cases in 2021, 12.38 million cases in 2022, and 15.75 million cases in 2023, and the Incheon Main Customs Maritime Express Logistics Center was put on emergency alert to handle the Korea-China ferry cargo pouring into Incheon Port. Accordingly, the Incheon Port Maritime Express Logistics Center was newly established by expanding and relocating to Aam Logistics Complex 2 in December 2023. The number of X-ray lines for inspecting cargo has increased from 6 to 11, automatic sorting equipment has been newly introduced, and the annual processing volume has approximately doubled from 12 million to 22 million. In addition, in order to ensure safe and quick customs clearance of overseas direct purchase items, we are seeking to optimize customs clearance processing time and reduce corporate logistics costs, and we expect to contribute to job creation and regional economic development by attracting domestic and international e-commerce companies. Therefore, this study focused on analyzing “whether the annual processing volume of 22 million cases is sufficient” and “at what point will the annual processing volume exceed 22 million cases” of the Incheon Port Maritime Special Logistics Center, which was expanded and relocated to Aam Logistics Complex 2 in December 2023. To this end, first, we conducted a survey on the current status of e-commerce and special cargo, and the form and benchmarking of domestic maritime special cargo customs clearance. Second, the annual cargo volume of Incheon Port’s maritime express cargo and the monthly cargo volume of e-commerce import goods through export and import customs clearance at Incheon Port were investigated, and time series analysis on changes in future cargo volume (2024-2030) was performed using quantitative demand forecasting techniques such as Smart Forecast (demand forecasting solution developed by Smart Software, USA) and moving average method and exponential smoothing method. As a result, it was calculated that the annual cargo volume would exceed 22 million cases in 2030. Accordingly, step-by-step preparations and policy suggestions for the development of Incheon Port’s maritime express cargo center were presented. Previous studies have focused on the design of the optimal automated facility layout of the maritime express customs clearance office or the feasibility analysis of the maritime express customs clearance office construction project. This study has the significance and differentiation of presenting improvement measures and policy suggestions through time series analysis for the development plan of Incheon Port’s maritime express logistics center.