Getting to Yes: Explaining State Referendum Success and What (If Anything) the Commonwealth Can Learn from It

This article provides the first detailed account of the results of state constitutional referendums and asks why the success rate of state referendums (75%) is so much higher than that of Commonwealth referendums (18%). It finds that state referendums have typically involved uncontentious proposals for institutional reform. Bipartisanship, timing, and the willingness of voters to follow party cues in low-key campaign environments have aided success. The disparity in state/Commonwealth success rates is due partly to state practice, including care in issue selection and consensus-building. However, state polls also occur in an institutional context that is more conducive to referendum success. Federalism, rigidity and a high public profile mean that Commonwealth referendum proposals are more likely to affect multiple interests, attract scrutiny, generate strong opposition and prompt fears about irreversible change. The state experience therefore expands our understanding of referendum outcomes but does not provide a blueprint for federal referendum success.