Financial forecasting in the lab and the field: Qualified professionals vs. smart students
We compare the performance of financial professionals (CFAs) with university students in four financial forecasting tasks ranging from simple lab prediction tasks to longitudinal field prediction tasks. Although students and professionals performed similarly in the most artificial forecasting tasks, CFAs outperformed students in the field predictions. Differences in forecasting performance between finance professionals and students were explained by financial literacy, not cognitive ability.
Authors
- Yohanes E. Riyanto (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7343-4043)
- Nobuyuki Hanaki (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3127-690X)
- Katsuhiko Okada (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9655-2640)
- Te Bao (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6397-9365)
- Brice Corgnet (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0086-8523)
- Jiahua Zhu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0419-9240)
Institutions
- Nanyang Technological University (SG)
- King's College London (GB)
- Kwansei Gakuin University (JP)
- Alibaba Group (Cayman Islands) (KY)
- King's College School (GB)
- Institute for Social and Economic Research (GB)
- École de management de Lyon (FR)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance
- Published
- 2025-04-15
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2025.101051
- Primary Topic
- Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00