Analysis of the potential resource, environmental and economic impacts of EU battery and waste battery regulations on China's lithium-ion battery industry

Meeting the EU's recycled content (RC) targets and carbon footprint (CF) thresholds poses a significant challenge for China, yet limited research has addressed this issue. This study quantifies the impacts of these requirements on China's lithium-ion battery (LIB) industry from resource, environmental, and economic perspectives. Under the Export-Oriented Priority Allocation strategy, China can meet the RC targets effectively. Due to varying levels of grid decarbonization, the ranking of LIB CFs across different countries is: EU < US < South Korea < Japan < China, putting China at high risk of EU market exclusion. By signing Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) worth $78.0 million, China could align its LIB CFs with those of South Korea and Japan. If China's official electricity CF were recognized by the EU, this cost would decrease to $50.5 million. China must accelerate mutual recognition of electricity CFs or explore direct green power supply to mitigate export risks.