Decoding Agricultural Drought Resilience: A Triple-Validated Random Forest Framework Integrating Multi-Source Remote Sensing for High-Resolution Monitoring in the North China Plain

Agricultural drought poses a severe threat to food security in the North China Plain, necessitating accurate and timely monitoring approaches. This study presents a novel drought assessment framework that innovatively integrates multiple remote sensing indices through an optimized random forest algorithm, achieving unprecedented accuracy in regional drought monitoring. The framework introduces three key innovations: (1) a systematic integration of six drought-related factors including vegetation condition index (VCI), temperature condition index (TCI), precipitation condition index (PCI), land cover type (LC), aspect (ASPECT), and available water capacity (AWC); (2) an optimized random forest algorithm configuration with 100 decision trees and enhanced feature extraction capability; and (3) a robust triple-validation strategy combining standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), comprehensive meteorological drought index (CI), and soil moisture verification. The framework demonstrates exceptional performance with R2 values consistently above 0.80 for monthly assessments, reaching 0.86 during autumn and 0.73 during summer seasons. Particularly, it achieves 87% accuracy in mild drought (−1.0 < SPEI ≤ −0.5) and 85% in moderate drought (−1.5 < SPEI ≤ −1.0) detection. The 20-year (2000–2019) spatiotemporal analysis reveals that moderate drought events dominated the region (23.7% of total occurrences), with significant intensification during the 2010–2012 and 2014–2016 periods. Summer drought frequency peaked at 12–15 months in south-central Shandong (37°N, 117°E) and eastern Henan (34°N, 114°E). The framework’s high spatial resolution (1 km) and comprehensive validation protocol establish a reliable foundation for agricultural drought monitoring and water resource management, offering a transferable methodology for regional drought assessment worldwide.