Maize yield estimation in Northeast China’s black soil region using a deep learning model with attention mechanism and remote sensing

Accurate prediction of maize yields is crucial for effective crop management. In this paper, we propose a novel deep learning framework (CNNAtBiGRU) for estimating maize yield, which is applied to typical black soil areas in Northeast China. This framework integrates a one-dimensional convolutional neural network (1D-CNN), bidirectional gated recurrent units (BiGRU), and an attention mechanism to effectively characterize and weight key segments of input data. In the predictions for the most recent year, the model demonstrated high accuracy (R² = 0.896, RMSE = 908.33 kg/ha) and exhibited strong robustness in both earlier years and during extreme climatic events. Unlike traditional yield estimation methods that primarily rely on remote sensing vegetation indices, phenological data, meteorological data, and soil characteristics, this study innovatively incorporates anthropogenic factors, such as Degree of Cultivation Mechanization (DCM), reflecting the rapid advancement of agricultural modernization. The relative importance analysis of input variables revealed that Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Sun-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF), and DCM were the most influential factors in yield prediction. Furthermore, our framework enables maize yield prediction 1-2 months in advance by leveraging historical patterns of environmental and agricultural variables, providing valuable lead time for decision-making. This predictive capability does not rely on forecasting future weather conditions but rather captures yield-relevant signals embedded in early-season data.