A Method for Identifying Landslide-Prone Areas Using Multiple Factors and Adaptive Probability Thresholds: A Case Study in Northern Tongren, Longwu River Basin, Qinghai Province

Early and accurate identification of landslide-prone areas is critical for monitoring and early-warning systems, forming the foundation of disaster prevention and mitigation. However, current landslide susceptibility assessment methods often rely on arbitrary probability classification thresholds, leading to subjective and regionally non-adaptive results that neglect low-susceptibility areas, thereby limiting their practical utility in disaster management. To address these limitations, this study proposes a novel method for identifying landslide-prone areas by integrating multi-factor analysis with adaptive probability thresholds. The methodology combines landslide catalog data with key landslide influencing factors, including geology, topography, precipitation, surface deformation, and human activities. The gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) algorithm is employed to estimate landslide susceptibility probabilities, while an adaptive threshold criterion—based on minimizing the Jensen–Shannon (JS) divergences weighted sum between landslide-prone areas and positive samples—is established to objectively classify regions. Validation experiments were conducted in the northern Tongren region of the Longwu River Basin, Qinghai Province, China. Historical landslides (February 2016–June 2017) were used for model training, and subsequent landslides (June 2017–November 2022) served as validation data. The results demonstrate exceptional performance: the susceptibility model achieved an AUC value of 0.99, with 94.07% accuracy in classifying landslides positive samples. Furthermore, 77.78% of post-2017 landslides occurred within the identified prone areas, yielding a 22.22% omission rate. These findings highlight the method’s ability to dynamically adapt to regional characteristics, balance sensitivity and specificity, and provide actionable insights for landslide risk management.