Aerodynamics, technology or pit strategy: why did overtaking in Formula 1 decline during the 1980s and 1990s? A micro-level analysis

Abstract Overtaking in Formula 1 was far more abundant during the 1980s than during the 2000s, but it is poorly understood what exactly caused this decline. This paper uses a negative-binomial model on overtaking data at the driver level from 1983 to 2010 to disentangle the effect of quantifiable factors, such as the number of cars and pit strategies, from the non-quantifiable overtake-friendliness of the tracks and the cars. It was found that overtaking was easiest at the beginning of the study period (1984 and 1985) and then declined until the late-1990s. While most of this decline was gradual, some abrupt downturns were discovered. These downturns seem to coincide with fuel-limit restrictions in the 1980s and the re-introduction of in-race refueling in 1994. The decline in overtaking during the 1990s may be attributed to the increased role of aerodynamics and technology, but their impact was more gradual and therefore harder to establish.