A Machine Learning-Based Intelligent Framework for Predicting Energy Efficiency in Next-Generation Residential Buildings

Improving energy efficiency is a major concern in residential buildings for economic prosperity and environmental stability. Despite growing interest in this area, limited research has been conducted to systematically identify the primary factors that influence residential energy efficiency at scale, leaving a significant research gap. This paper addresses the gap by exploring the key determinant factors of energy efficiency in residential properties using a large-scale energy performance certificate dataset. Dimensionality reduction and feature selection techniques were used to pinpoint the key predictors of energy efficiency. The consistent results emphasise the importance of CO2 emissions per floor area, current energy consumption, heating cost current, and CO2 emissions current as primary determinants, alongside factors such as total floor area, lighting cost, and heated rooms. Further, machine learning models revealed that Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, XGBoost, and LightGBM deliver the lowest mean square error scores of 6.305, 6.023, 7.733, 5.477, and 5.575, respectively, and demonstrated the effectiveness of advanced algorithms in forecasting energy performance. These findings provide valuable data-driven insights for stakeholders seeking to enhance energy efficiency in residential buildings. Additionally, a customised machine learning interface was developed to visualise the multifaceted data analyses and model evaluations, promoting informed decision-making.