The Effect of Technical Fouls on Momentum Change in Basketball: A Comparison of Regular Season vs. Playoffs in the NBA

Spanning two decades (2000–2021), this study delves into how TF-induced momentum shifts differ between regular season and playoff matchups, factoring in home-court advantage and team score status at the time of the call. Analyzing 4196 cases of technical fouls (TFs) called against coaches, we employ big data analytics to uncover distinct patterns in momentum shifts and their strategic implications. Using advanced statistical modeling, we identify how these effects vary across game contexts, demonstrating how big data enhances decision-making in competitive sports. Logistic regression revealed a significant season-by-location interaction (p < 0.03). The findings revealed that, in the regular season, TFs in home games were associated with a 44%-win rate, compared to 28% in away games. However, in the playoffs, this shifted to 50% at home and 23% away. These results provide valuable insights into the TF–momentum shift phenomenon. Leveraging game analytics to identify patterns in TF-related momentum shifts can help coaches make more informed decisions, including pinpointing the optimal moments for TFs and other strategic actions.