GC-MT: A Novel Vessel Trajectory Sequence Prediction Method for Marine Regions

In complex marine environments, intelligent vessels require a high level of dynamic perception to process multiple types of information for mitigating collision risks. To ensure the safety of maritime traffic and enhance the efficiency of navigation information, vessel trajectory prediction is crucial for Automatic Identification Systems (AIS). This study introduces a Graph Convolutional Mamba Network (GC-MT) utilizing AIS data for predicting vessel trajectories. To capture motion interaction characteristics, we employed a Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) to construct a spatiotemporal graph that reflects the interaction relationships among various vessels within the maritime information flow. Furthermore, high-level spatiotemporal features were extracted using a Mamba Neural Network (MNN) to incorporate time-related dynamics. Validation against real-world historical AIS data demonstrates that the proposed model achieved improvements of approximately 35% and 28% in the Average Displacement Error (ADE) and Final Displacement Error (FDE), respectively, compared to the leading baseline model. The predictive capability of the proposed method demonstrates its effectiveness in improving maritime navigation safety in a shipping environment with multiple information sources.