Investigation of the mechanical predictor of crustal earthquakes using GPS measurements

A mechanical predictive sign of an earthquake expressed in the uplift of the earth’s crust is studied. The lithospheric plate model is considered in the form of a plate with horizontal forces applied to its edges. For some critical forces, the plate loses stability and becomes sinusoidal. It is assumed that geodynamic anomalies in the form of raising and lowering of the earth’s surface are associated with earthquakes and other dangerous geodynamic processes. The model was used to study seismic activity on the territory of the Taman Peninsula using GPS measurements at the permanent stations of Anapa, Temryuk and Gelendzhik. Theoretical estimates of the critical wavelength of λc for the lithospheric plate with a density of 2500 kG/m3 for the thickness of the sedimentary layer of the earth’s crust from 5 to 10 km are in the range from 121 to 204 km. It can be assumed that the weakening of the lithosphere as a result of faults is equivalent to a decrease in its thickness. Then, for a plate with a capacity of just over 3 km, it can be assumed that in the area between the GPS stations of Anapa and Temryuk with a distance of 44 km, within the framework of the proposed model, a half-wave of sinusoidal elevation of the earth’s surface was recorded. The considered phenomenon at the Gelendzhik station was manifested during the observation period not so clearly that can be explained by the influence of the Anapa flexural-discontinuous zone, which determines the different geodynamics of the observation stations. The considered predictive feature can be used when planning GPS observation networks.