Coupling Coordination Relationships Between Water Resource–Water Environment–Social Economy Resilience and Ecosystem Services in Five Provinces of Northwest China

In the context of global climate change and intensified anthropogenic pressures, the coordinated development of a social-ecological system (SES) faces unprecedented challenges, necessitating an enhanced understanding of complex system interactions to achieve SES sustainability. This study quantified water resource–water environment–social economy resilience (WR-WE-SEr) and four ecosystem services (ESs)—water yield (WY), habitat quality (HQ), soil retention (SR), and carbon storage (CS)—in Northwest China from 2010 to 2020. Intersystem interactions were analyzed using resilience theory, the InVEST model, and the coupling coordination degree (CCD) model. The key findings include the following: (1) Spatiotemporal evolution patterns (RQ1): WR-WE-SEr exhibited sustained growth with significant regional disparities (Qinghai > Xinjiang > Gansu > Shaanxi > Ningxia), predominantly driven by resistance-dominated dynamics. ESs showed spatial heterogeneity: WY was concentrated in humid areas but declined temporally, while HQ and CS aligned with vegetation/land cover. All ESs followed a “V”-shaped trajectory of initial decline and recovery, with localized fluctuations but regional stability. (2) Coordinated coupling relationships (RQ2): The CCD between WR-WE-SEr and ESs maintained temporal stability but mirrored ESs’ spatial patterns, characterized by a southeast–northwest diminishing gradient. Coordination hierarchy (CS > HQ > WY > SR) and regional performance (Shaanxi > Ningxia > Qinghai > Gansu > Xinjiang) revealed synergies between system resilience and ES provisioning capacity. Transitional coordination (dissonance to coordination) at the integrated ES level highlighted gradual optimization of human–nature interactions. These findings underscore the need for multidimensional strategies to enhance WR-WE-SE-ES synergies in Northwest China.